Is Bitcoin preparing for a new peak?
AI Summary
- Bitcoin is the first decentralized cryptocurrency, with a history dating back to 2008 and high price volatility and regulatory challenges making it attractive for traders
- Bitcoin mining involves solving complex mathematical problems to add new blocks, with the current reward set at 3.125 bitcoins per block and halving every 210,000 blocks
- Bitcoin has been trending upward and is forming an AB=CD harmonic pattern with a potential peak near $130,176.75, with technical analysis suggesting a continued ascent towards resistance levels
Table of Contents
- Introduction
- History of Bitcoin
- How Bitcoin Works
- Mining
- Buying and Using Bitcoin
- Price History and Market Impact
- Risks and Challenges
- Environmental Impact
- Regulations and Legal Status
- Technical Analysis
- Conclusion
Introduction
Bitcoin is the first decentralized cryptocurrency. It appeared in 2008 from a person or group of unknown identity called Satoshi Nakamoto, and it relies on peer-to-peer technology, which facilitates instant financial transactions without intermediaries such as banks. It is the first cryptocurrency in the world, but as a financial asset it comes with high price volatility and regulatory challenges, making it exciting for traders.
History of Bitcoin
Bitcoin began on August 18, 2008, with the registration of Bitcoin.org. On January 3, 2009, the first block was mined, which included a critique of the traditional financial system. Nine days later, the first transaction took place between Nakamoto and Hal Finney for 10 bitcoins. On May 22, 2010, Laszlo Hanyecz bought two pizzas for 10,000 bitcoins, a day now known as "Pizza Day." By 2010, Nakamoto had mined about one million bitcoins before disappearing, leaving the project to developers such as Gavin Andresen.
How Bitcoin Works
Bitcoin is based on blockchain technology, a distributed ledger that records transactions transparently. Each block contains transactions, a timestamp, and a reference to the previous block using cryptographic algorithms. Transactions are verified through encryption to prevent double spending. Mining involves solving complex mathematical problems to add new blocks, with the current reward (2024) set at 3.125 bitcoins per block, halving every 210,000 blocks (approximately every four years).
Mining
Mining requires powerful hardware such as ASICs, and miners often join pools like Foundry Digital to increase their chances of earning rewards. Companies like CleanSpark operate thousands of mining devices. Solo mining is possible but less profitable due to high competition.
Buying and Using Bitcoin
Bitcoin can be purchased on platforms such as Coinbase or Binance. You can buy small fractions (called satoshis, which are 1/100,000,000 of a bitcoin). It is stored in digital wallets (software or hardware). Although accepted by some merchants, its use in commerce is very limited, and it is mostly used as an investment or a store of value for traders.
Price History and Market Impact
Bitcoin experiences significant price fluctuations. Its market capitalization reached $2.1 trillion in February 2021, and the unit price surpassed $100,000 in December 2024.
Risks and Challenges
Risks include strong price volatility, with the price moving by thousands of dollars daily; vulnerability of exchanges to hacking; and the lack of government-backed insurance. About 20 percent of bitcoins are lost due to misplaced wallets. Regulations vary: nine countries had banned Bitcoin by 2021, and India banned exchanges in 2023. In the United States, there were no specific regulations as of 2024, while the European Union implemented the MiCA regulation in 2023.
Environmental Impact
Mining consumes about 0.5 percent of global electricity and contributes 0.08 percent of greenhouse gas emissions, with 50 percent of energy sourced from fossil fuels. Mining also generates electronic waste.
Regulations and Legal Status
Bitcoin has been legal tender in El Salvador since 2021 and the Central African Republic since 2022, though the IMF has called for El Salvador to repeal that status. Countries like China and Algeria have completely banned Bitcoin, while others lack clear regulatory frameworks.
Technical Analysis
Technically, Bitcoin has been trending upward and is forming an AB=CD harmonic pattern whose completion is near $130,176.75. On the daily chart, it appears to be correcting its recent rally in a sideways range between $111,880 as resistance and $97,845 as support. Having bounced upward from that support zone, there is a likelihood of continued ascent toward resistance levels and an attempt to break through them, supported by the RSI holding above 50.
Conclusion
In the end, Bitcoin represents a financial revolution offering a decentralized alternative to fiat currencies. From its humble beginnings to its massive market value, Bitcoin remains at the center of attention for traders and investors. Yet with opportunities come challenges such as volatility, security risks, and environmental impact. For enthusiasts of price analysis and harmonic trading, Bitcoin provides an exciting arena, but one that demands caution and deep market understanding.
Oil in 2025: Prices, Reserves, and Economic & Geopolitical Factors
Introduction
Oil remains a cornerstone of the global economy and continues to be subject to significant volatility due to economic and geopolitical factors. This report aims to review the current oil price, reserves of producing countries, production and trade activity, and oil price forecasts for 2025.
Current Price
As of June 2025, Brent crude is priced at approximately $70 per barrel, experiencing slight fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Prices have recently surged on fears of escalation between Iran and Israel but remain within the $65–75 range, influenced by global oversupply and increased production from countries like Saudi Arabia.
Reserves of Producing Countries
Owning massive oil reserves strengthens the global market influence of producing countries. According to OPEC, Venezuela holds the largest reserves at 303.8 billion barrels, followed by Saudi Arabia with 258.6 billion barrels, Iran with 208.6 billion barrels, Iraq with 145.0 billion barrels, and the UAE with 113.0 billion barrels. In Q1 2025, global oil production rose to 104.9 million barrels per day, up by 1.8 million barrels per day, driven by increased output from OPEC+ nations, especially Saudi Arabia.
Production and Trade Activity
OPEC+, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, agreed to cut production by 1.66 million barrels per day until the end of 2025 to support price stability. However, Saudi Arabia has announced plans to raise output, potentially exerting downward pressure on prices due to surplus. Russian exports have been affected by Western sanctions, reducing its market share, while countries like the UAE and Qatar have boosted foreign investments supported by financial surpluses. Non-compliance with output quotas by some OPEC+ members adds to market volatility.
Oil Movement Amid Wars
Geopolitical conflicts, including the Russia-Ukraine war and unrest in the Middle East, significantly affect oil prices. The Russia-Ukraine conflict, ongoing since 2022, triggered sanctions that limited Russian oil exports and pressured global supply. In the Middle East, current tensions like the Gaza conflict and escalating friction between Iran and Israel have caused temporary price spikes due to supply disruption fears. These conflicts heighten uncertainty, prompting markets to monitor geopolitical developments closely.
Oil Price Forecast 2025
- U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA): Forecasts Brent crude will average $75 per barrel in Q3 2025, potentially declining to $68 in 2026 due to rising global supply.
- National Bank of Kuwait: Projects an average of $70 per barrel in 2025, noting that prices will remain relatively low due to supply surplus.
- Citi Bank: Raised its oil forecast for 2025 due to geopolitical risks, particularly involving Russia and Iran. However, it warns of possible price drops if tensions ease.
- Global Economics Unit: Expects Brent to average $80.8 per barrel in 2025, supported by a stronger dollar and increased emerging market demand, while warning that supply surplus may cap price gains.
Economic and Geopolitical Factors
- Inflation and U.S. Dollar Strength: A stronger dollar pressures oil prices, while rising demand in emerging markets offsets it.
- Geopolitical tensions: Supply disruption fears drive price spikes.
- OPEC+ policies: Decisions to increase or cut production directly impact price stability.
Conclusion
In 2025, oil remains a strategic commodity influenced by supply-demand dynamics and geopolitical developments. With a current price around $70 per barrel and forecasts ranging from $60 to $80.8, oil is highly sensitive to global events. Geopolitical conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine war and Middle East tensions offer temporary price support, but increasing output from OPEC+ may limit gains. It is recommended to follow geopolitical updates and OPEC+ strategies to better understand market direction.
Gold in 2025: Prices, Central Bank Reserves, and Economic & Geopolitical Impacts
Gold Analysis 2025: Price, Forecasts, and War Impact
Gold retains its special status as a safe haven amid economic and geopolitical tensions. In this report, we review the current gold price, central bank reserves, buying and selling activity, and gold price forecasts for 2025. We also explore gold's behavior amid current conflicts and wars.
Current Price and Fabrication Costs
The price of gold has risen by 4.7% over the past month and by 44.83% compared to the previous year. This surge reflects increased demand from both individuals and central banks using gold to preserve asset value during recent periods of instability.
Central Bank Reserves
Central banks currently hold large quantities of gold, reinforcing its role as a strategic asset. According to the World Gold Council, the United States leads with 8,133.5 tons, followed by Germany with 3,417 tons and the International Monetary Fund with 3,217 tons.
In Q1 2025, central banks bought a net 244 tons, with notable purchases from Poland, reflecting a strategy to reduce dependence on the U.S. dollar amid geopolitical tensions.
Buying and Selling Activity
Central banks have consistently purchased gold since 2010, acquiring over 1,000 tons annually in recent years. In 2025, global reserves are expected to grow by 95%.
Meanwhile, gold sales have been limited: Russia sold 3 tons, Uzbekistan 15 tons, and Kyrgyzstan only 2 tons in Q1 2025.
Gold Movements Amid Ongoing Conflicts
Wars and geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and turmoil in the Middle East, support rising gold prices. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, active since 2022, has increased demand for gold as a result of Western sanctions on Moscow, prompting central banks—especially in emerging markets—to boost reserves to safeguard their assets.
In the Middle East, tensions such as the war in Gaza and escalation between Iran and Israel enhance gold’s appeal as a safe haven. These conflicts create regional instability, encouraging both individuals and banks to invest in gold as a wealth protection measure.
Gold Price Forecast for 2025
The outlook is positive, driven by strong demand and geopolitical tension. Below are predictions from financial institutions:
- J.P. Morgan: Predicts an average price of $3,675/oz in Q4 2025, with potential to reach $4,000 by mid-2026.
- Goldman Sachs: Forecasts $3,700/oz by the end of 2025, possibly hitting $3,880 in case of a recession.
These forecasts are supported by expectations of a weaker dollar due to accommodative monetary policies, combined with strong central bank demand seeking to diversify away from the dollar.
Three Key Drivers Supporting Gold:
- Inflation: Rising consumer prices make gold an effective hedge against loss of purchasing power.
- Diversification Away from the Dollar: Central banks are increasing reserves to reduce dollar reliance amid sanctions risk.
- Geopolitical Tensions: Conflicts like Russia-Ukraine and Middle East escalation boost demand for gold as a safe haven.
Conclusion
In summary, gold remains an attractive investment in 2025 with a current price of approximately $3,373.65/oz and forecasts reaching $4,000 by year-end. Central bank purchases, combined with conflicts like the Russia-Ukraine war and Middle East unrest, support demand. Inflation and sanctions fears also reinforce gold’s role as a strategic asset.
Follow daily gold analysis on Economies.com for broader insights into price trends.
3 Best AI Stocks to Invest in 2025
Top AI Stocks for 2025
Artificial Intelligence (AI) has become the driving force behind modern changes in the financial markets. In 2025, it's one of the most attractive sectors for investors. In this article, we highlight the top three AI stocks: NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Amazon, and explore why investors are focusing on them.
1. NVIDIA
History
NVIDIA was founded in 1993 by Jensen Huang and partners, initially focusing on graphics processing units (GPUs) for gaming. In 2006, it launched the CUDA platform, revolutionizing parallel computing—including training AI models. By 2025, NVIDIA controls around 87% of the GPU market used in AI, thanks to products like the H100 and Blackwell chips, the top choice for companies like OpenAI and Google.
Despite growing competition from Chinese AI models such as DeepSeek R1, NVIDIA remains the industry leader.
Fundamental Analysis
- Market Cap: $3.517 trillion (June 2025)
- P/E Ratio: Historical 46.59, Forward 33.63
- 5-Year PEG: 1.36
- Price-to-Sales: 23.93
- Price-to-Book: 42.18
Technical Analysis
The stock trades in a sideways range on the weekly timeframe between $153 and $87.9. It bounced strongly from the $87 weekly support, but with RSI overbought, a correction is expected.
Best Buy Zones: $140 - $134 - $129ش
2. Microsoft
History
Microsoft was founded in 1975 by Bill Gates and Paul Allen. It entered AI in the 1990s through Microsoft Research. The company launched Cortana in 2014, then integrated AI into services like Azure, Office 365, and Teams. Its partnership with OpenAI has solidified its leadership in cloud-based AI.
Fundamental Analysis
- Market Cap: $3.547 trillion (June 2025)
- P/E Ratio: Historical 37.03, Forward 31.95
- PEG: 2.25
- Profit Margin: 36.86%
- Annual Revenue: $280.26 billion
- Free Cash Flow: $54.82 billion
Technical Analysis
The stock recently broke out of a sideways range on the daily timeframe between $468 resistance and $348.5 support. With strong RSI momentum, it is expected to continue rising toward $516.
Best Buy Zones: $486 and $456
3. Amazon
History
Amazon was founded in 1994 by Jeff Bezos as an online bookstore, quickly evolving into "the everything store." It began using AI in 1998 in its recommendation engine, which generates around 35% of its revenue. Through AWS, Amazon offers AI services like SageMaker and uses AI in logistics and its voice assistant Alexa.
By 2025, Amazon has integrated AI across all operations, cementing its role as a leading tech powerhouse.
Fundamental Analysis
- Market Cap: $2.29 trillion
- P/E Ratio: Historical 35.20, Forward 33.44
- PEG: 2.39
- Annual Revenue: $650.31 billion
- Profit Margin: 10.14%
- Free Cash Flow: $39.27 billion
Technical Analysis
On the 4-hour chart, the stock is trading in a sideways range between $241.93 resistance and $161.91 support. A harmonic AB=CD pattern may complete near the PRZ area close to resistance, followed by a potential RSI correction toward 50 before resuming the uptrend.
Best Buy Zones: $204.5 and $196.8
